Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~33.8%; our estimate: 38%
• • EV at current odds: ~12.5% ROI for a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Current odds (2.96) exceed our break-even requirement (2.632)
• + Tamila's recent form shown in the research includes losses, which tempers the favorite's edge

Cons

• - No direct data on Rikke de Koning in the provided research, increasing uncertainty
• - Lack of surface/H2H specifics means our probability estimate is necessarily conservative

Details

We find value on the home underdog Rikke de Koning. The market prices Rikke at 2.96 (implied win probability ~33.8%) while, given the limited research, we estimate her true chance at about 38%. The available data on Tamila Gadamauri shows a long career with an overall modest winrate and recent losses, which reduces confidence in the heavy favorite price of 1.366 (~73.2% implied). There is no head-to-head or clear surface advantage information for Rikke in the provided research, increasing uncertainty, but the current price for the home side offers a positive expected value relative to our conservative probability estimate. We therefore recommend the home side only because EV > 0 at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (2.96) is ~33.8%; we estimate 38% true chance
• • Tamila has a long career (559-507) but recent results in the provided sample show recent losses, lowering confidence in the favorite tag
• • No H2H or clear surface advantage information for Rikke in the research, so our estimate is conservative and accounts for uncertainty