Riko Kikawada vs Satsuki Ishikawa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market price (1.14) overvalues the home player given Kikawada's weak record and recent form; no value exists at current odds, so we recommend not betting.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability (1.14) far exceeds our estimated 65% win chance
- • Lack of opponent data raises uncertainty and increases risk of market mispricing
Pros
- + Home is priced as a heavy favorite, so the market views Kikawada as strong
- + If additional opponent weakness existed, value could appear — but that info is not provided
Cons
- - Kikawada's 10-21 record and recent losses suggest a much lower true win probability than 87.7%
- - No information on Satsuki Ishikawa or H2H to justify the market's heavy favorite price
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (home 1.14 -> 87.7%) to our estimated true win probability for Riko Kikawada. The only provided performance data shows Kikawada with a 10-21 career record and poor recent results, which argues for a much lower true win probability than the market price implies. There is no provided data for Satsuki Ishikawa or H2H, increasing uncertainty. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 65% for the home player (reflecting some home/seed/market support but accounting for Kikawada's weak recent form), the current price of 1.14 yields a negative expected return (EV = 0.65 * 1.14 - 1 = -0.259). Because expected_value is not positive at current odds, we do not recommend wagering on either side and instead report the minimum odds that would be required to justify a bet.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~87.7% for home at 1.14, which is very high
- • Provided record for Riko Kikawada is 10-21 with poor recent results
- • No data provided for Satsuki Ishikawa or H2H, increasing uncertainty and downside risk