Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (95.24%) exceeds our estimated probability (92.0%).
• • Favorite at 1.05 yields a -3.4% ROI under our conservative model.

Pros

• + Quoted lines are clear and widely available (1.05 / 9.5).
• + Conservative probability reduces risk of overestimating the favorite.

Cons

• - No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to support deviation from conservative priors.
• - Small potential returns on the heavy favorite even if correct — must be priced extremely efficiently to be +EV.

Details

We treat Susana Souhrada as a heavy favorite given the quoted market odds (1.05) but, with no external form, injury, surface or H2H data available, we apply a conservative true-win probability of 92.0% for the favorite. The market-implied probability at 1.05 is ~95.24%, which is higher than our 92.0% estimate, so the favorite is over-priced by the market relative to our conservative view. At our estimate the expected return on a 1-unit stake at 1.05 is 0.92 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.034 (a -3.4% ROI), so there is no positive expected value to back Susana Souhrada at 1.05. Conversely the long-shot Risa Ueno at 9.5 implies ~10.5% and would require a true win probability >~10.53% to be +EV; given the lack of supporting evidence for an upset and our conservative stance, we do not assign that probability. Therefore we decline to recommend a side at current prices and instead state the minimum odds required for value on our estimated probabilities.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors away at 1.05 (implied 95.24%)
• • No external form, injury, surface or H2H data available — we use conservative estimates
• • Our conservative true probability (92.0%) implies a negative EV at the current price