Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability (~62.6%) appears high relative to the balanced player data
• • Home price (2.18) provides a modest positive EV based on our conservative probability estimate

Pros

• + Value exists at the current home price versus our estimated true probability
• + No negative injury or form indicators in the research to discount the home pairing

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈4.6% ROI) and sensitive to probability estimation error
• - Doubles outcomes can be volatile and research lacks head-to-head or matchup specifics

Details

We see near-identical recent profiles for all four players in the provided research (each listed with a 10-21 record and similar surface experience), indicating parity between the pairs. The market has pushed the away pair (Chang/You) into a clear favorite at 1.599 (implied ~62.6%), which we view as overstating their edge given the lack of distinguishing form, surface advantage, H2H or injury info in the research. We estimate the true win probability for the home pair (Bhatia/Monnet) closer to 48%; at the current home price of 2.18 that produces a small positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing the home side only because the available price exceeds the minimum fair odds implied by our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • All four players show nearly identical recent records in the supplied data (10-21), suggesting matchup parity
• • No injuries, surface biases or H2H data provided to justify the market's clear favoritism for the away pair
• • Current home decimal (2.18) exceeds the break-even odds implied by our estimated probability (2.083), creating value