Riya Bhatia / Carole Monnet vs Veronika Erjavec / Zhibek Kulambayeva

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 30.3% vs our estimate 35%
• • Positive expected value of ~0.155 (15.5% ROI) at current decimal odds 3.3

Pros

• + Clear pricing skew in market favoring the away team without supporting form/injury data
• + Both teams appear evenly matched on paper, so the underdog price is attractive

Cons

• - Limited doubles-specific data and no H2H; chemistry and pairing experience unknown
• - Small sample sizes in player records increase uncertainty around the true probability estimate

Details

We see a large market lean to the away pair (implied away probability ~78%) despite both players on each side showing very similar career records and recent form in the provided data. The market-implied probability for the home underdog (1/3.3 = 30.3%) appears depressed relative to our read of the matchup: the four players all have comparable win-loss samples and surface experience (clay/hard), with no injury information or clear form edge documented in the research. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 35.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 30.3%, creating positive expected value. EV calculation used: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.35 * 3.3 - 1 = 0.155 (15.5% ROI). Given the limited data but clear pricing skew, backing the home side offers value at the current 3.3 price.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors away (implied away ~78%), creating an underdog pricing opportunity
• • All four players show similar career records and surface experience in the supplied data
• • No injuries, H2H, or decisive form advantage documented to justify the large market gap