Robert Strombachs vs Michael Vrbensky
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a modest value on Robert Strombachs at 1.68 based on a superior career record and a true-win estimate (~62%) above the market-implied probability, though limited grass data raises variance.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 59.5% vs our estimate 62%
- • Positive EV of ~4.2% per unit at current price
Pros
- + Clear historical performance advantage
- + Current market price implies slightly lower chance than our model
Cons
- - No grass-specific performance data for either player in the provided research
- - Qualifier-level matches and surface change introduce higher variance
Details
We believe Robert Strombachs represents value at the current moneyline (1.68). His career win-loss record (47-20) is materially stronger than Michael Vrbensky's (19-28), indicating a higher baseline level. Both players' recent recorded matches in the research are on clay/hard and there is limited/no grass-specific data, so we apply a small uncertainty discount; even after that, Strombachs' overall results and form edge justify a true-win probability above the market-implied price. The market-implied probability for the home price is ~59.5% (1/1.68). We estimate Strombachs' true probability at ~62%, which yields a positive edge (EV = 0.62*1.68 - 1 ≈ +0.042 per unit). Given the limited grass exposure for both, downside variance exists, but the current price offers a modest value opportunity.
Key factors
- • Strombachs has a substantially stronger overall win-loss record (47-20 vs 19-28)
- • Both players lack documented grass performance in the provided research, increasing uncertainty
- • Market-implied probability (59.5%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (62%)