Highlights

• • Experienced, proven doubles specialists versus a much smaller sample player
• • Market price (1.418) implies ~70.5%; our model conservatively gives ~78%

Pros

• + High-level doubles experience and match-craft in pressure matches
• + Good fit to hard-court conditions and tournament stage favors veterans

Cons

• - Research lacked recent form details for both pairs, adding uncertainty
• - Single-match variance in doubles (tiebreaks, serve returns) can swing outcomes

Details

We believe Marcel Granollers / Horacio Zeballos are undervalued by the market at the quoted 1.418. The away pair brings extensive doubles experience and proven results on hard courts, while Robert Cash's recorded professional match sample is very limited. Given the surface (outdoor hard) and the veterans' consistent doubles pedigree, we estimate their true win probability materially above the market-implied 70.5%. There are no explicit injury flags in the provided research and the matchup is a Grand Slam semifinal, where experience and match-craft in key moments typically favor the established pair. Using a conservative true win probability of 78% versus the current decimal price 1.418 yields positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Significant experience and doubles pedigree of Granollers/Zeballos
• • Limited professional match sample and lower career volume for Robert Cash
• • Hard (outdoor) surface which suits experienced doubles teams and serves/returns patterns