Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Aidan Mchugh

Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Pacheco: ~78.8% (1.269)
• • Our estimated fair price for Pacheco: ~1.613 (62% win chance)

Pros

• + Book market clearly identifies Pacheco as favorite, likely reflecting recent form/ranking not fully detailed in the research
• + If Pacheco has unseen grass preparation, the short price could be justified — but that information isn’t present

Cons

• - Current price (1.269) offers no value versus our surface-adjusted probability
• - Limited grass experience for the favorite and absence of H2H data increase uncertainty against such a short price

Details

We compare the bookmaker price (home 1.269 = implied 78.8%) to our assessment. Research shows Aidan Mchugh has explicit grass experience while Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez's profile lists primarily clay and hard-court activity; head-to-head is not available. Given Mchugh's grass familiarity and comparable career records (Pacheco 35-31, Mchugh 32-20) we estimate Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez's true win probability at 62%. That implies a fair decimal price of ~1.613, well above the offered 1.269. At the current market price the expected value is strongly negative (EV = 0.62 * 1.269 - 1 = -0.213), so there is no value to backing the heavy favorite. To justify a play on Pacheco at our probability we'd need at least ~1.613; the book's short price overstates his win chance materially given surface concerns and limited grass data.

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass — Mchugh has recorded grass experience; Pacheco’s profile lists clay/hard primarily
• • Market price (home 1.269) implies ~78.8% win probability, which we judge too high
• • Comparable career records but recent results and surface specialization favor making a more conservative probability for the favorite