Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.29 is 77.5%
• • Our conservative estimated true probability is ~45%, implying fair odds ~2.222

Pros

• + Rodrigo has professional match experience and has played on hard courts
• + Market consensus strongly favors Rodrigo, which normally simplifies finding contrarian value if justified

Cons

• - Limited sample size and inconsistent results (5-6) do not support the large favorite price
• - No information on the opponent prevents confident upside estimates for the away player

Details

We compared the market price (Rodrigo Fernandes 1.29 -> implied win probability 77.5%) to a realistic estimate based on the available player data. Rodrigo's limited career sample (11 matches, 5-6) and mixed recent results do not support a ~77% true win probability against an opponent for whom we have no data; a conservative estimated true probability is ~45%. Using that estimate, the fair decimal odds would be ~2.222. At the current price of 1.29 there is a large negative expected value, so we do not recommend backing Rodrigo. With no information on Maximilian Borisov to identify an edge on the upset, we cannot find a value play on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Rodrigo's small sample career record (11 matches, 5-6) and mixed recent form
• • Market-implied probability (77.5%) is far higher than our estimated win probability (~45%)
• • No usable data provided for Maximilian Borisov, increasing uncertainty and preventing a counter-value assessment