Rohan Belday vs Jack Casciato
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small but positive value backing the heavy favorite (home) at 1.12 based on a conservative 93% win probability estimate; edge is modest and uncertainty is elevated due to lack of match-specific data.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability 93% vs market 89.3%
- • Positive EV of ~4.16% at current odds
Pros
- + Current odds exceed our conservative required price (min required 1.075)
- + Simple, defensible scenario for backing a heavy favorite with limited information
Cons
- - Research returned no match-specific data (form, surface, injuries), increasing uncertainty
- - Upsets in tennis are possible; a small edge can be volatile
Details
We estimate Rohan Belday's chance to win at 93% based on the available match data and conservative assumptions (no injury or surface information provided). The market-implied probability at decimal odds 1.12 is ~89.3%, so the market appears to slightly understate the favorite. Given the lack of contrary information and the typical stability of heavy favorites in tennis, this creates modest positive expected value backing the home side at current prices. We remain conservative because no recent form, surface, or injury details were available, which increases uncertainty and argues against a larger edge.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.12 -> ~89.3%) vs our conservative estimate (93%)
- • No external data on injuries, surface, recent form or H2H — we conservatively limit edge
- • Heavy-favorite scenarios in tennis can be stable but carry upset risk