Highlights

• • Home implied fair price (based on our p=0.60) ≈ 1.667 — market is shorter at 1.52
• • Both sides produce negative EV under conservative probability estimates

Pros

• + Market pricing is consistent with a clear favorite, reducing downside of a cautious stance
• + We used conservative, margin-aware probability estimates to avoid overbetting on uncertain information

Cons

• - No match-specific data available (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H), increasing uncertainty
• - Small edges would be required to find value; current margins and odds do not permit that

Details

We estimate Rohan Belday (home) has roughly a 60% chance to win this match based on the favorite pricing, typical conversion of market-implied odds after a conservative margin removal, and absence of contrary information. The current market decimal price for the home side (1.52) implies a higher win probability (~66%), but after adjusting for bookmaker margin and uncertainty we reduce that to ~60%. At that true-probability estimate, the break-even decimal price is ~1.667; the available price of 1.52 produces negative expected value (EV = 0.6*1.52 - 1 = -0.088). The away price (2.38) would require a true probability of 0.4 to be fair (break-even 2.5), and we do not have evidence to push our estimated away probability high enough to justify backing the underdog at 2.38. Given the lack of external data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) and our conservative assumptions, neither side offers positive expected value versus the current books, so we do not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data (surface, form, injuries) — we use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market-implied probabilities include a bookmaker margin; normalizing reduces implied edge
• • Current favorite price (1.52) is below our conservative fair threshold (≈1.667), producing negative EV