Highlights

• • Away implied probability ~80.6%; our estimate 80.0% — no value at 1.24
• • Home would need >27.0% true win chance to be +EV at 3.70; we estimate ~20%

Pros

• + Conservative stance avoids taking low-margin or negative-EV bets in absence of data
• + Clear threshold (min_required_decimal_odds 1.25) identified if odds drift

Cons

• - We may miss a small market mispricing if hidden information exists
• - No aggressive value capture recommended due to high uncertainty

Details

With no external data available we make conservative estimates. The market prices Petar Teodorovic (away) at 1.24 (implied win probability ≈ 80.6%). We estimate the away win probability at 80.0% — essentially in line with the market — which yields no positive expected value at the available price. Conversely, Rohan Belday (home) at 3.70 implies a 27.0% chance; our conservative estimate for the home side is lower (~20%), so that side is also negative EV. Given the tiny or negative edge on both sides and the absence of reliable form, surface, injury, or H2H data to justify an adjustment, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No reliable match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) available
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.24) essentially matches our conservative estimate
• • Home price (3.70) would need a true win probability above ~27.0% to be +EV; our conservative estimate is significantly lower