Highlights

• • Home implied break-even probability: 37.0%; our estimate: 40.0%
• • Positive expected value at current home odds: +0.08 (8% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Odds provide a clear edge vs our conservative probability
• + Low information environment increases chance bookmakers overprice short favorites

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) — our estimate is conservative but uncertain
• - Edge is modest (+8%) and susceptible to information the market may possess

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 2.70 => implied 37.0%, Away 1.42 => implied 70.4%) and apply a conservative adjustment because no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data are available. The book's overround (~7.5%) inflates favorite prices; after shrinkage toward 50/50 to reflect our uncertainty, we estimate Roman Sancilio's true chance at 40.0%, which exceeds the break-even threshold for the home price (37.04%). At decimal 2.70 the home side yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.40*2.70 - 1 = +0.08). We therefore identify the home moneyline as value-priced versus our conservative probability estimate, while the away price requires an implausibly high >70% true probability to be profitable and is not recommended.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities and bookmaker overround (~7.5%)
• • Conservative shrinkage toward 50% due to lack of research (surface, form, injuries unknown)
• • Break-even threshold for home is 1/2.70 = 37.04%, our estimate is 40.0% -> positive EV