Highlights

• • Home (underdog) implied probability: ~8.70%; our estimate: 6.0%
• • Required decimal odds for value on home: ~16.667 (market 11.50)

Pros

• + If more favorable information appears (injury to favorite or mispriced markets) the underdog at 11.5 could become attractive
• + Market currently offers a large outsider price that could be exploitable with additional data

Cons

• - No research or confirmatory data to increase our confidence above the conservative estimate
• - Favorite price (1.04) is extremely short and offers effectively no return even if correct

Details

We have no external research or match-specific data beyond the listed prices, so we make conservative assumptions. The market prices heavily favor the away player (Marie Mattel) at 1.04 (implied ~96.15% win probability) while the home player (Romane Morel) is available at 11.50 (implied ~8.70%). Given lack of form, surface, H2H or injury information, we estimate a conservative true win probability for the underdog (Romane Morel) of 6.0%. At that probability the underdog's fair decimal price would be ~16.667, well above the offered 11.50, producing a negative expected value at the current market. The favorite's market price is extremely short and would require an estimated true win probability materially above our conservative estimate for value; we cannot justify that with no information. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, injury or H2H data available (high uncertainty)
• • Market implies home win ~8.70% and away win ~96.15%; extreme favoritism for away
• • Conservative estimated probability for underdog (6.0%) is well below the market-implied for value