Highlights

• • Available odds (1.33) exceed our fair-price threshold (1.299)
• • Projected ROI is small (~2.4%) on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Quantified small positive EV versus market price
• + Simple trade: betting the strong market favorite at a slightly inflated price

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to our probability assumption
• - No external data (surface, injuries, recent form, H2H) — higher uncertainty

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 3.05, Away 1.33) to a conservative internal estimate. The market-implied probability for Evan Jarzaguet (Away) is about 75.2% (1/1.33). Given the lack of external information but acknowledging the clear market favoritism, we conservatively estimate Jarzaguet's true win probability at 77%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1/0.77 = 1.299. The available price of 1.33 exceeds that threshold, producing a small positive expected value: EV = 0.77 * 1.33 - 1 ≈ 0.024. The edge is modest and contingent on the conservative probability assumption; missing data on surface, form, injuries, and head-to-head raises uncertainty, so this is a low-margin value play rather than a strong recommendation.

Key factors

• • Market clearly favors the away player (implied ~75.2%)
• • Conservative internal probability slightly above market (77%)
• • No external data on surface, form, injuries or H2H increases uncertainty