Highlights

• • Schell is the stronger career performer but current price (1.662) implies too large a favorite probability
• • Fair break-even decimal for Schell ≈1.818; current market is below that threshold

Pros

• + We have a clear quantitative gap between market-implied and estimated probability for Schell
• + Both players’ recent poor form reduces likelihood of large market error, supporting a conservative stance

Cons

• - Limited additional contextual data (surface specifics, H2H, injuries) increases uncertainty in the estimate
• - Small sample sizes at this level and volatile form can flip value quickly if new information emerges

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 2.13 / Away 1.662) to our appraisal of the players using only the provided career and recent-form data. Niklas Schell has a larger sample (239 matches) and a higher career win rate (≈36.8% vs Ronald Hohmann’s ≈31.1%), and recent results show mixed to poor form for both players. The market prices imply ~60.1% for Schell (1/1.662) and ~46.9% for Hohmann (1/2.13). Based on the head-to-head absence and both players’ weak recent results, we estimate Schell’s true win probability at ~55.0%, which is substantially lower than the market-implied ~60.1% — this means the available away price (1.662) is over-round priced and offers negative expectation. Using our probability, the fair decimal for Schell would need to be ≈1.818 or higher to break even. The home price (2.13) also does not offer value under our view because Hohmann’s estimated probability would be below the implied 46.9%. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Schell (≈36.8%) vs Hohmann (≈31.1%) favor Schell
• • Recent form: both players show weak recent results, limiting deviation from market
• • Market-implied probability for Schell (≈60.1%) exceeds our estimated true probability (55%), removing value