Highlights

• • Favourite (1.03) requires ≳97% true probability to be profitable — not supported by Rositsa's 10-21 record
• • Underdog (11.5) could nominally offer value if its true chance >8.7%, but we lack opponent data to support that

Pros

• + Clear mispricing versus Rositsa's documented form — market is extreme and easily disprovable
• + Simple decision: avoid taking an obviously negative-EV favourite

Cons

• - Insufficient information on Ioana-Steliana Scripcariu prevents a confident contrarian underdog play
• - Small sample and limited match detail in the Research increase uncertainty of our probability estimate

Details

We compare the market moneyline (Rositsa 1.03, implied ~97.1%) to our assessment from the available player data. Rositsa Dencheva's career sample in the Research shows a 10-21 record (≈32% win rate over 31 matches) with limited recent success; nothing in the provided material supports a near-97% true win probability. To justify taking the heavy favourite at 1.03 the true probability would need to be ≳97%, which is implausible given Rositsa's documented form. We also lack any data on Ioana-Steliana Scripcariu in the provided Research, so we cannot confidently uplift the underdog's chance beyond the book's implied ~8.7% without inventing information. Therefore no value exists on the favourite at current prices, and we decline to recommend the underdog due to insufficient opponent data and uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Rositsa at 1.03 (implied ≈97.1%), which requires an implausibly high win probability
• • Rositsa's documented career record in the Research is weak (10-21 over 31 matches) and shows limited recent success
• • No usable data on the opponent in the provided Research, increasing uncertainty and preventing a reliable underdog valuation