Highlights

• • Players show equivalent records and sparse differentiators
• • Away at 2.43 yields ~11.8% expected ROI by our estimate

Pros

• + Clear price discrepancy between market (home 1.50) and our assessment
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV at current odds

Cons

• - Very limited and overlapping data for both players increases uncertainty
• - Potential home/venue factors or unreported injuries could invalidate the edge

Details

Both players have nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data (10-21, 31 matches) with appearances on clay and hard courts, so there is no clear performance edge. The market prices Rositsa Dencheva (home) at 1.50 (implied 66.7%), which appears overstated given the symmetric profiles; we estimate the true match win probability for Laura Mair (away) at 46.0%. At the available decimal price of 2.43 for the away side this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.46 * 2.43 - 1 ≈ +0.118). We view this as a value play because the book's implied probability for the favorite is substantially higher than the balance suggested by the comparable career numbers and lack of differentiating information.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent match data for both players (10-21)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no surface advantage evident in provided data
• • Market heavily favors the listed home at 1.50, creating value on the away price