Highlights

• • Market implies 84.7% for Molleker; our fair estimate ~75%
• • Required decimal odds for value on Molleker are ≥ 1.333 (market 1.181)

Pros

• + Molleker is the higher-tier player with a better win rate overall
• + Clear market consensus simplifies the value assessment

Cons

• - Odds available are too short to produce positive EV
• - Uncertain grass-court form for both players increases upset potential

Details

We compare the market price (Molleker 1.181, implied 84.7% win probability) to our assessment of the true win probability. Molleker is the clear favorite given higher-level results and a better career trajectory versus Steiner, but both players' recent records are middling and neither profile shows clear grass-court pedigree; Steiner has substantial match experience but a weaker win rate. We estimate Molleker's true win probability at ~75%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.333. At the offered 1.181 the market overprices Molleker (market-implied 84.7% > our 75%), so there is no positive expected value on the favorite at current prices. Therefore we recommend taking no side on the moneyline. Odds used for EV calculation: home 1.181.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Molleker (implied 84.7%) leaving little room for value
• • Our assessment gives Molleker ~75% chance — quality gap exists but not extreme
• • Both players have limited or unclear grass-court form; surface uncertainty reduces confidence
• • No clear injury information or H2H advantage to justify taking the heavy favorite