Highlights

• • Market price (1.061) implies >94% win probability.
• • We estimate Molleker nearer to 90% given records and unknown grass conditions, producing negative EV.

Pros

• + Molleker is the clear favorite by experience and historical results.
• + Large discrepancy in matches played favors the more battle-tested player.

Cons

• - Odds are extremely short, offering no value unless one believes Molleker is >94% to win.
• - Grass surface is untested for both players, which increases upset risk and makes a near-lock unlikely.

Details

We compare the market price (R. Molleker 1.061, implied ~94.2%) to a reasoned true-win probability. Research shows Molleker has substantially more match experience (59 matches, 30-29) while Michalik has a small sample and poor record (15 matches, 4-11). Neither profile lists grass experience, so surface introduces variance that reduces the case for an almost-certain outcome. Given the quality gap we estimate Molleker is strongly favored, but we cannot justify a >94% true probability required to make the 1.061 price positive. At an estimated true win probability of 90% for Molleker the expected value on the 1.061 quote is negative, so we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Molleker has far greater match experience and a better win record (30-29 vs 4-11).
• • Michalik’s sample size is small and his win rate is low, making sustained upsets unlikely but not impossible.
• • Surface is grass and neither profile shows grass experience — this unknown increases upset variance and reduces confidence in ultra-short market pricing.