Highlights

• • Market favorite Rudy at 1.73 implies 57.8% — we estimate 56.0%
• • Rudy needs ≥1.786 odds to be +EV by our model

Pros

• + Rudy has a marginally better provided win rate in the dataset
• + Match on hard court where both players have experience

Cons

• - Limited, noisy recent-match data and odd stat formatting lower confidence
• - Joshua’s greater match experience on hard courts offsets Rudy’s better raw win %

Details

We compare the market prices to our assessment based on player profiles, recent form, surface fit and sample sizes. Rudy Quan is the market favorite at 1.73 (implied 57.8%). His career win rate from the provided sample is slightly higher (13-11, ~54%) but from a much smaller match sample than Joshua Sheehy, and his recent results are mixed. Joshua Sheehy has more match exposure (44 matches) and more experience on hard courts, but his recorded win rate is roughly breakeven (21-23, ~48%). Given the limited and noisy data, we estimate Rudy’s true win probability at 56.0%, which is below the market-implied 57.8% for the 1.73 price. That yields a small negative EV at current odds (EV = 0.56 * 1.73 - 1 = -0.031). We therefore do not find value on either side at the posted prices: Rudy would need odds ≥ 1.786 to turn positive by our estimate, and Joshua would need a materially larger implied chance than his recent record and profile suggest to be value at 2.05.

Key factors

• • Small sample sizes and noisy recent-match stats reduce confidence
• • Rudy favored by market but only marginally superior in provided win %; not enough edge
• • Sheehy has greater match volume and hard-court experience, narrowing gap