Highlights

• • Implied bookmaker probability for favorite: 90.91%
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 88% → current price is overpriced for the book

Pros

• + Conservative probability approach reduces risk of being misled by missing data
• + Avoids taking a very short favorite with marginal or negative ROI

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific information means we may be underestimating the favorite's true chance
• - If true probability is materially higher than our conservative 88%, value could exist but is not verifiable here

Details

We compared the supplied market prices (Away 1.10 => implied probability 90.91%, Home 6.75) to a conservative, no-research estimate of true probabilities. Given no supplemental data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H, we apply a conservative assessment that the favorite's true win probability is around 88.0% (0.88). At that probability the expected return on the favorite at 1.10 is negative (EV = 0.88*1.10 - 1 = -0.032), meaning the bookmaker price does not offer value. The underdog price (6.75) implies only ~14.8% and would require a true-win chance >14.8% to be profitable; our conservative estimate for the underdog is much lower, so we do not see value there either. Because the favorite's quoted price is too short relative to our conservative probability estimate, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Extremely short market price for the favorite (1.10) implies ~90.9% probability
• • No external data provided (surface, form, injuries, H2H), so we use conservative probability estimates
• • Under conservative p=88%, current favorite odds produce negative expected value