Rushil Khosla vs Camilo Erazo Rodriguez

Highlights

• • Market price (1.25) implies ~80% — we estimate 77% (conservative)
• • Required decimal odds for a +EV bet at our estimate would be >= 1.299

Pros

• + Favorite status suggests lower variance if one wanted to take action
• + Market pricing is tight and consistent with a clear favorite

Cons

• - Current price (1.25) offers negative EV against our conservative probability
• - No external data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify beating the market

Details

We compare the listed prices to a conservative estimate of true win probability given no additional data. The market implies the home favorite (Rushil Khosla) has ~80% win probability (1/1.25). With no form, surface, injury, or H2H information available, we conservatively estimate the home win probability at 77%—slightly below the market-implied 80%. At that probability the home price (1.25) produces a small negative edge (EV = -0.0375). To justify a bet on the favorite we would need the market to offer at least ~1.299 or higher for the same 77% estimate; conversely, the underdog would need an assessed win chance above ~27.03% to be +EV at 3.7. Given the lack of specific information and the bookmaker overround (market appears to price the favorite with a small margin), we do not find positive expected value at current widely-available prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.25) = 80%; our conservative estimate = 77%
• • No available data on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H increases uncertainty
• • Bookmaker margin/overround reduces chances of finding value on the heavy favorite