Rushil Khosla vs Theodoros Mitsakos

Highlights

• • Market implies a small favorite but includes meaningful vig (~7.5%).
• • Our conservative estimate (52%) yields a fair price of 1.923 — longer than available 1.83.

Pros

• + We applied a conservative probability given lack of external information.
• + Clear numeric comparison shows no positive EV at quoted prices.

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) to refine probability.
• - A small true edge could exist but would need better information or higher offered odds to be exploitable.

Details

We compared the market prices (home 1.83, away 1.89) to a conservative estimated win probability for the home player. The market-implied probability for the home side is roughly 54.6% (1/1.83) and for the away side ~52.9% (1/1.89), with a combined book vig of about 7.5%. With no external form, surface, H2H, or injury data available, we assume a narrow home edge but remain conservative and assign the home player a 52.0% true win probability. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.923, which is longer than the current 1.83 quote, producing a negative expected value at current prices. Given the vig and the small margin between our estimate and the market, there is no value to back either side at the provided odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities show a tight match with ~54.6% on home and ~52.9% on away after vig
• • No independent data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we use conservative assumptions favoring a slight home edge
• • Given the bookmaker vig and small estimated edge, current prices do not offer positive expected value