Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for away: ~54.9%; our estimate: 62%
• • Required fair odds to break even given our estimate: ~1.613; current 1.82 > 1.613

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at the current available price
• + Opponent (home) has a demonstrably weak short career record, supporting a higher prob. for away

Cons

• - Very small-sample data on both players increases uncertainty around the true probability
• - No detailed scouting/injury or recent H2H available for the away player in provided research

Details

We find value on the away moneyline (Marvin Spiering) because the market price (1.82, implied ~54.9%) understates our estimated win probability for the away player. Ryan Augusto Dos Santos has a very limited and poor recorded form (2-9 career, recent losses), and while surface exposure includes clay and hard, his win rate is low enough that a reasonable true probability for an opponent in this event is materially higher than the market-implied number. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 62% for the away player, the fair decimal price would be ~1.613, so the current 1.82 quote offers positive expected value. We also account for market overround (~7.3%) and the small-sample uncertainty on Ryan; despite that uncertainty, the gap between our probability and the market implies profitable value at 1.82.

Key factors

• • Ryan Augusto Dos Santos recent recorded form is poor (2-9), indicating low baseline win probability
• • Market-implied probability for away at 1.82 (~54.9%) is below our conservative estimated true probability (62%)
• • Small-sample uncertainty and limited public data increase variance, but the current price still shows positive edge