Highlights

• • Market overprices Clarke at 1.42 (≈70.4%); our estimate gives Clarke lower win probability
• • Nijboer priced at 2.80 offers required odds above our fair threshold (2.532)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (+10.6% ROI by our estimate)
• + Surface familiarity and recent lower-level wins support upset potential

Cons

• - Clarke’s superior overall record and higher-level experience increase upset risk
• - Limited direct-comparison data and some noisy recent results make the estimate uncertain

Details

We find value backing the home player, Ryan Nijboer, at 2.80. The market prices Jay Clarke as a ~70.4% favorite (1/1.42) which appears rich given the available profiles: Clarke has a better overall win-loss record (54-26 vs 49-35) and recent higher-level appearances, but his recent results show some vulnerability and are mixed across surfaces. Nijboer has substantial match volume and clay experience in 2025 and has shown wins at the M25/challenger level; this matchup on clay (Targu Mures is a clay event contextually) should compress the quality gap somewhat. Balancing career records, surface overlap, and recent mixed form for both players, we estimate Nijboer’s true win probability at 39.5% (0.395). That implies fair odds of 2.532; the current price of 2.80 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.395*2.80 - 1 = +0.106, or +10.6% ROI). Given the prices presented, backing Nijboer is a value play while backing Clarke at 1.42 shows negative EV versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Clarke (1/1.42 ≈ 70.4%) looks overstated relative to form and surface context
• • Clarke has stronger overall record but mixed recent results including a loss at a higher-level hard-court event
• • Nijboer has solid clay match experience and recent wins at the M25 level, narrowing the gap on clay