Ryan Peniston vs Remy Bertola
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Ryan Peniston at current odds (1.568) driven by a stronger overall record and a slight edge versus the market-implied probability.
Highlights
- • Market implies 63.8% for Peniston; we estimate 66.0%
- • Positive EV ≈ +3.5% at current decimal odds 1.568
Pros
- + Clearer career-level performance advantage for Peniston
- + No injury concerns reported in the provided research
Cons
- - Surface for the match is unspecified in the research and could favor Bertola if it is clay
- - Edge is modest; variance in a single-match tennis market remains significant
Details
We estimate Ryan Peniston has a higher true win probability than the market-implied price. Peniston's career win rate (54-24) is markedly stronger than Remy Bertola's (45-33), and recent form is comparable without reported injuries. The market price of 1.568 implies a 63.8% win probability; we assess Peniston's true probability at 66.0%, creating a small positive edge. Because surface for this event is not specified in the research, we remain conservative but still favor Peniston based on overall record and consistency. At the quoted odds (1.568) this produces a positive expected value (EV ≈ +3.5%).
Key factors
- • Peniston's superior overall win-loss record (54-24 vs 45-33)
- • Recent form is mixed for both players with no reported injuries in the research
- • Market-implied probability (63.8%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (66.0%)