Ryan Peniston vs Andrea Bacaloni
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Peniston at 1.05 shows a small positive edge vs the market given his far superior record and no negative signals in the research; the EV is modest but positive.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability 95.24% vs our 97% estimate
- • Small positive EV (~1.85% ROI) on the home moneyline at 1.05
Pros
- + Strong historical win-rate and match volume for Peniston
- + Current price slightly underestimates Peniston's win probability
Cons
- - Edge is small—low margin for error or new negative information (injury, conditions)
- - Bacaloni’s sample size is tiny and volatility could produce upset risk
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Ryan Peniston (1/1.05 = 95.24%) to our assessment of his true win probability (~97%). Peniston has a strong overall record (54-24) versus Andrea Bacaloni's poor record (1-11), and both have recent matches on hard/clay surfaces listed, so no clear surface advantage for the underdog. There are no injury notes in the provided research. At the current decimal price of 1.05 the market is offering a slightly inferior payoff relative to our estimated win chance, producing a small positive expected value. We remain cautious because the edge is small, Bacaloni’s matches include clay results that could slightly shift dynamics, and the sample for Bacaloni is very small, but on the information given the favorite price contains measurable value.
Key factors
- • Large disparity in career records: Peniston 54-24 vs Bacaloni 1-11
- • Both players have recent matches on hard/clay; no clear surface swing to the underdog
- • Market-implied probability (95.24%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (97%)