Highlights

• • Market implies Shiraishi ~71.7% which we view as overstated
• • Tabata fair-price threshold is ~2.381; current 2.84 offers value

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ~0.193)
• + Both players have comparable hard-court records, reducing a clear performance edge for the favorite

Cons

• - Small sample for Tabata (17 matches) increases variance and uncertainty
• - Shiraishi’s larger sample and generally consistent record mean upset risk remains significant

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimate based only on the provided player profiles. The market makes Hikaru Shiraishi a heavy favorite at decimal 1.394 (implied ~71.7%). Both players’ career win rates on record are similar (~58%), with Shiraishi having a much larger sample (65 matches) versus Tabata (17 matches). Surface exposure is comparable (both have hard-court matches). Given the similar recorded win rates and both players showing recent losses, we believe the market overstates Shiraishi’s chance. We estimate Tabata’s true win probability at 42%, which requires minimum odds of 2.381 to be fair value; the available price of 2.84 therefore offers positive expected value. This view assumes no hidden injuries and that Shiraishi’s market premium is largely book margin/favorite bias rather than a true 72% win probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show similar career win rates (~58%) despite market favoring Shiraishi heavily
• • Shiraishi has a much larger sample size (65 matches) giving more reliable baseline but not enough to justify a ~72% implied win rate
• • Both players have recent losses on hard courts, reducing confidence in a dominant favorite case