Highlights

• • Broom: larger sample size and better win rate in research
• • Tanuma: limited matches and recent losses on hard courts

Pros

• + Clear experience and form advantage for Broom in the provided data
• + Current price (1.158) is slightly above our required fair odds (1.136)

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ≈ 1.8%) — tight margin that can be swamped by variance
• - Research contains limited match detail and small-sample risk for Tanuma which could understate upset potential

Details

We see a clear experience and form gap in the research: Charles Broom has a substantially larger match sample (52 matches, 29-23) and recent wins at M25 hard events, while Ryota Tanuma has a small sample (11 matches, 4-7) and recent losses on hard. Both players are shown on hard courts in the research, which offers no surface advantage for the home player. The market price (Broom 1.158) implies a win probability of ~86.4%; based on the stronger career volume, better recent results, and consistency at hard-court ITF events reported, we estimate Broom’s true win probability at ~88%. At that estimate the fair decimal price is ~1.136 and the offered 1.158 represents positive expected value. Using the provided odds (1.158) yields a small but positive ROI (EV ≈ 0.018 per 1 unit staked), so we recommend backing the away player only because the price exceeds our min required odds for value.

Key factors

• • Charles Broom has a larger match sample and superior overall record in research (29-23 vs 4-7)
• • Both players have hard-court experience in the research; no surface edge for Tanuma
• • Market price for Broom (1.158) is slightly longer than our fair price (~1.136) creating a small positive edge