Highlights

• • Empirical win rate (2-6) implies 25% chance — better than market's ~21.7%
• • Current odds 4.60 translate to ~15% positive ROI if our estimate holds

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge vs market price if the 25% estimate is accurate
• + High payout relative to implied probability

Cons

• - Very small sample (8 matches) — estimate unstable
• - No information on opponent Matsumura, H2H, or injuries — hidden downside risk

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to an empirically grounded estimate for Daiki Yoshimura. The book gives Yoshimura decimal 4.60 (implied win probability 21.74%) while Ryotaro Matsumura is a heavy favorite at 1.17 (implied 85.47%). From the provided career record Yoshimura is 2-6 (25% win rate) on hard courts across eight matches; using that empirical win rate as our estimated true probability (0.25) yields value versus the market. Required odds to break even at our estimate are 4.00 (1/0.25). Since the current price 4.60 > 4.00, the bet on Yoshimura offers positive expected value: EV = 0.25 * 4.60 - 1 = 0.15 (15% ROI). Caveats: the sample size is small, opponent quality (Matsumura) is unknown but implied to be stronger, and match-specific factors (injury, H2H) are not available, so volatility is significant.

Key factors

• • Yoshimura career record 2-6 on hard (25% win rate) based on provided data
• • Market-implied probability for Yoshimura at 4.60 is ~21.7%, below our 25% estimate
• • Required decimal odds to be profitable at our estimate = 4.00; current odds 4.60 exceed this
• • Small sample size and lack of opponent/injury/H2H details increase uncertainty