Highlights

• • Whitehouse's documented career win rate (37.5%) and recent losses conflict with market odds.
• • Current home price (2.34) exceeds our fair-price threshold (1.887), indicating value.

Pros

• + Strong numerical edge at current price based on Whitehouse's record and form.
• + Clear margin between implied and estimated probabilities allowing positive EV.

Cons

• - Sparse/no provided data on Ryotaro Matsumura increases outcome uncertainty.
• - If unobserved factors favor Whitehouse (injury improvements, matchup advantages), edge could vanish.

Details

We find value on the home side (Ryotaro Matsumura) because the market prices Mark Whitehouse as a heavy favorite (away implied win probability ~64.9% at 1.541), while Whitehouse's available career metrics and recent form suggest a substantially lower true win rate. Research shows Whitehouse has a 6-10 professional record (37.5% career win rate) with multiple recent losses on grass and hard courts, which conflicts with the market's ~64.9% expectation. There is limited public data on Matsumura in the provided research, but the market appears to be overrating Whitehouse relative to his documented form and overall record. Using a conservative true win probability estimate for the home player of 53%, the current home decimal price of 2.34 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.53 * 2.34 - 1 = 0.240). The minimum fair decimal price given our probability is 1.887, so the available 2.34 offers a clear edge. We acknowledge uncertainty due to sparse data on Matsumura, so we size our confidence accordingly.

Key factors

• • Mark Whitehouse career record 6-10 (37.5% win rate) which is well below market implied probability
• • Recent Whitehouse results show multiple losses on grass and hard courts indicating poor form
• • Market heavily favors Whitehouse (away implied ~64.9%) creating potential mispricing in favor of the home player