Ryuki Matsuda vs Bryce Nakashima
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a small-value bet on Ryuki Matsuda at 1.95 — our estimated win probability (53%) produces a positive EV (~3.3%). The edge is modest and comes with medium uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Matsuda estimated true win probability: 53%
- • EV at current home price 1.95 ≈ +3.35% ROI
Pros
- + Larger, more consistent match history on hard surfaces
- + Market underestimates Matsuda slightly relative to our probability model
Cons
- - Edge is small — narrow margin of profit
- - Nakashima's small sample size makes outcomes more volatile and unpredictable
Details
We compared the market prices (home 1.95, away 1.80) to an estimated true probability derived from the players' available career records and surface experience. Ryuki Matsuda has a larger match sample and a higher career win rate on hard courts (approximately 35-30 across ~66 matches, win rate ~53.8%), while Bryce Nakashima has a very small sample (3-3) and less match depth. The market implies probabilities of ~51.3% for Matsuda (1/1.95) and ~55.6% for Nakashima (1/1.80), but our read of the available data gives Matsuda a ~53% chance to win. At the quoted home price of 1.95 (odds_used_for_ev = 1.95) that probability yields a positive expected value: EV = 0.53 * 1.95 - 1 = 0.0335 (≈3.35% ROI). The edge is modest and subject to uncertainty because Nakashima's small sample size and limited recent data increase variance, but at current widely-available prices we identify value backing Matsuda.
Key factors
- • Matsuda has a larger match sample and a higher career win rate on hard courts
- • Nakashima's professional sample is very small (limited matches), increasing variance/uncertainty
- • Market favors the away player, but implied price for Matsuda (1.95) is above our fair threshold