S E. Cabezas Dominguez/C. Kuhl vs M C. Torres Murcia/C. Vazquez

Highlights

• • Implied probability of home favorite (1.30) = ~76.9%
• • Our conservative estimated true probability = 68% → fair odds ≈ 1.471

Pros

• + Market has a clear favorite, so outcome is more predictable than an even contest
• + If future information increases our confidence in the favorite well above 76.9%, price might become attractive

Cons

• - Current price (1.30) offers negative expected value vs our estimate
• - Lack of matchup, form, surface and injury data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate

Details

The market prices the home pair at 1.30 (implied probability ~76.9%). We have no matchup, form, surface or injury data from the Research and therefore make a conservative estimate of the true win probability for the favorite at 68%. That estimate reflects uncertainty around doubles pairings, potential volatility in doubles results, and typical bookmaker margins. At our estimated probability (68%) the fair decimal price would be ~1.471, meaning the current price of 1.30 is too short and offers negative expected value. We therefore decline to recommend a bet; a value opportunity would only appear if the market offered decimal odds >= 1.471 for the home side (or if new information shifted our probability materially upward).

Key factors

• • No external research available — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Bookmaker-implied probability (1/1.3 ≈ 76.9%) is higher than our estimated true probability (68%)
• • Doubles matches have higher variance and limited public information increases uncertainty