S. Anugonda/M. Tahiri vs G. Monteleone/M. Zaremba

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.49) = ~67.1%; our conservative estimate = 62.0%
• • Fair decimal odds required for value on the home side ≈ 1.613; current 1.49 is too short

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home pair, indicating perceived strength
• + If additional positive info on the home pair emerges, the current price could be reasonable

Cons

• - No reliable match-level data to justify deviating from conservative estimates
• - Current favorite price (1.49) yields negative EV under our conservative probability

Details

We have only the posted moneyline prices and no match-level information (form, H2H, surface specifics, or injuries). The market prices imply a ~67.1% win chance for the home pair (1/1.49). Using a conservative judgement given the lack of data, we reduce that implied probability to 62.0% to allow for unknown variance and bookmaker margin. At that estimated true probability the fair price for the home side would be ~1.613 decimal. The current home price of 1.49 produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.49 - 1 ≈ -0.076), so there is no value to back the favorite at current odds. The away side would need a true probability ≥ 40.3% to justify the 2.48 price; absent supporting information we estimate the away chance lower than that threshold, so it also lacks value. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No additional match data available (form, H2H, surface, injuries)
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.49) is ~67.1%; we applied a conservative discount to 62.0%
• • At our conservative estimate the favorite’s EV is negative, so current price is overrounded