S. Arends/S. Verbeek vs A. Molteni/H. Zeballos

Highlights

• • Estimated true probability for Molteni/Zeballos: 55.0%
• • Required decimal odds for value on favorite: 1.818 — current 1.77 is too short

Pros

• + Conservative, market-aware approach minimizes overconfidence when data is lacking
• + Clear thresholds provided for what price would create value

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of surface/form/H2H information
• - Small negative EV could flip with any new relevant information (injury, lineup, form)

Details

We have no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we apply conservative, market-aware assumptions. The market prices Molteni/Zeballos as slight favorites at 1.77 (implied ~56.5%). After accounting for uncertainty and the lack of additional information, we estimate their true win probability at 55.0% (0.55). At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.818; the current market price of 1.77 is shorter than our min-required price, producing a small negative EV (EV = 0.55*1.77 - 1 = -0.0265). The home side at 2.00 implies 50% market probability; under conservative assumptions we estimate the home true probability at ~45% (0.45), which would require odds >= 2.222 to be profitable. Given both sides are priced shorter than our conservative fair thresholds, there is no value at current prices and we therefore do not recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external data available on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market favors Molteni/Zeballos at 1.77; our conservative true probability estimate (0.55) implies fair odds 1.818
• • Home odds (2.00) would require substantially higher true probability for value (we estimate home p ~0.45, needing >=2.222)
• • Small margin between market and our conservative estimate results in negative EV for both sides