Highlights

• • Market implies ~55% for the away side; our estimate is ~50%
• • Lack of partnership/H2H data and recent poor snippets reduce confidence

Pros

• + Nanari's long-term career win rate provides a baseline of competence
• + Both players have experience on multiple surfaces, limiting surface-driven surprises

Cons

• - Recent form snippets suggest losses; limited usable recent data
• - No information on the opposing team's form or head-to-head to justify a value edge

Details

We find no value at the current market prices. The away side (Nanari Katsumi/A. Nava Elkin) is listed at 1.81 (implied ~55.3%) while the home side is 1.91 (implied ~52.4%). Based on the available research, Nanari has a long career win rate (~52.5%) but recent match snippets indicate poor form, so we adjust our estimated true probability for her pairing to ~50.0%. That implies fair odds should be ~2.00; the current 1.81 is too short and produces a negative expected return. We also lack any reliable information on the opponents (S. Biolay/K. Mandelikova), H2H, or partnership form to justify moving our probability materially above the market. Given the market's implied probabilities and the uncertainty around doubles/team dynamics here, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Nanari's long career win rate (~52.5%) but recent results appear weak
• • Market odds are short for both sides (1.81 and 1.91) leaving little margin for model upside
• • Insufficient information on partners, H2H, specific doubles form and injuries increases uncertainty