S. Buhadana/N. Koprivova vs A. Geikhman/L. Keller

Highlights

• • Home odds 1.06 imply ~94.3% win chance; our estimate is 92.0%
• • At current prices neither side clears the required probability threshold for positive EV

Pros

• + Clear market signal there is a strong favorite, so match outcome is likely predictable
• + Low odds mean low variance for bettors who avoid action

Cons

• - Market price for the favorite is shorter than our conservative true-probability estimate, producing negative EV
• - Insufficient publicly available information to justify taking the long underdog at 8.5

Details

We find no value at the quoted prices. The market price for the home team (1.06) implies a win probability of ~94.3%; given the absence of reliable form, injury, H2H or surface data and the typical volatility at lower-level events, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the heavy favorite at 92.0%. That is materially below the market-implied 94.3%, producing a negative EV on the favorite. The away price (8.5, implied ~11.8%) would require us to assign an >11.8% chance to be profitable; given the strong market gap and lack of supporting evidence, we estimate the away true probability below that threshold. Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.06) = ~94.3% which exceeds our conservative estimate
• • No available data on form, injuries, H2H or surface advantages to justify improving our estimate
• • Low-level event volatility and short prices increase bookmaker margin and reduce value