Highlights

• • Away implied (market) decimal 1.55 normalizes to ~59.95% true probability
• • EV at current away odds = -0.0708 (about -7.1% per unit staked)

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the away side, reflecting a higher win probability
• + We avoid making an uninformed bet when the normalized market shows negative EV

Cons

• - No match-specific data available to justify an edge versus market pricing
• - Book margin meaningfully reduces any potential edge (overround ~7.6%)

Details

With no external data available we treat the market as the primary information source and normalize implied probabilities to remove the bookmaker overround. Raw implied probabilities are 1/2.32 = 43.10% (home) and 1/1.55 = 64.52% (away), sum = 107.62% (overround ~7.62%). Normalizing gives estimated true probabilities of ~40.05% (home) and ~59.95% (away). Using the away side as the market favorite (decimal 1.55), our normalized estimated probability (0.599488) produces an expected ROI of 0.599488*1.55 - 1 = -0.070794 (about -7.08% per unit staked). The home side at 2.32 yields a similar negative EV once normalized. Because both sides show negative expected value at the current prices (the vig eats value), we do not recommend a bet. To be attractive, the away side would need odds >= 1.668 (1 / 0.599488) and the home side would need odds >= 2.498 (1 / 0.400512). Given no additional information on surface, form, injuries, or head-to-head to justify deviating from the market, the conservative decision is to pass.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, injury, or H2H information available — we rely on market pricing
• • Bookmaker overround ~7.62%; normalized market probability for away is ~59.95%
• • Normalized probabilities produce negative EV at current decimals for both sides