S. Dev/N. Sinha vs A. Bangargi/E D. Zapp
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: the market overprices the heavy favorite and the longshot does not meet the probability threshold for value based on conservative estimates.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (97.09%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (94%).
- • Away would require >8.0% true win chance to be +EV at 12.5; our estimate is ~6%.
Pros
- + Avoids taking a very low-return bet on an over-priced heavy favorite.
- + Conservative approach limits exposure to unreliable, information-poor markets.
Cons
- - If our conservative true probability is too low and the favorite is closer to 98%+, we miss a small positive edge.
- - No actionable play when markets occasionally underprice longshot upsets.
Details
We compared the market prices to conservative, research-free probability estimates. The market implies the home pair has a 1/1.03 = 97.09% chance to win; given the lack of independent data and the inherent volatility in tennis doubles, we conservatively estimate the home win probability at 94% and the away at 6%. At those estimates the home side is over-priced by the market (our true prob 94% < implied 97.1%), so backing the heavy favorite at 1.03 offers negative expected value. Conversely, the away side would need >8.0% true probability to be +EV at 12.5; our conservative 6% estimate is below that threshold, so the away side also lacks value. With no sign of value on either price, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities: Home 97.09% (1.03), Away 8.00% (12.5)
- • No external research available; we applied conservative estimates to reflect uncertainty
- • Home would need true win probability >97.09% to be +EV; away would need >8.00%