Highlights

• • Home implied market probability 74.6% vs our conservative estimate 72% → no value at 1.34
• • Away would need odds above ~3.571 to be considered value given our conservative estimate

Pros

• + Clear market pricing indicates a strong favorite which reduces variance in outcomes if avoided
• + Lines are short and stable — easy to re-check if lines drift later

Cons

• - No positive EV at current prices for either side
• - Lack of external data increases uncertainty; our conservative estimates may still be off

Details

We estimate outcomes conservatively because no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data is available. The book market gives the home pair odds of 1.34 (implied ~74.6%) and away 3.05 (implied ~32.8%). Using a conservative true-win probability for the home pair of 72% (0.72) to reflect uncertainty, the EV at the quoted home price is negative: EV = 0.72 * 1.34 - 1 = -0.035. For the away pair, a conservative true probability of 28% (0.28) yields EV = 0.28 * 3.05 - 1 = -0.146. Both sides produce negative expected value at current prices, so we do not recommend a bet. For the home side to be value, decimal odds would need to be ≥ 1.389; for the away side to be value they would need to be ≥ 3.571.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data available — we apply conservative probability estimates
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.34) is ~74.6%, slightly higher than our conservative 72% estimate
• • Both sides produce negative EV at current listed prices (home and away)