Highlights

• • Bookmaker price for home appears inflated at 1.40 (implied 71%)
• • Underdog at 2.75 exceeds our fair threshold of 2.50

Pros

• + Positive expected value (≈10% ROI) at current odds
• + Conservative probability assumptions still produce value

Cons

• - No match-specific form, injury, or H2H data available — higher uncertainty
• - Doubles matches can be volatile; outcomes more variable than singles

Details

We have no external match data, so we use a conservative model assumption. The market prices S. Hosogi/M. Matsuda at 1.40 (implied ~71.4%) which looks steep given typical uncertainty in doubles at this level and absence of confirming information. We estimate the true win probability for A. Chanta/T. Naklo at 40% (home 60%). At that probability the away decimal fair price is 2.50; the available price 2.75 therefore offers value. EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.40 * 2.75 - 1 = 0.10 (10% ROI). Given missing form/injury/H2H data we remain conservative with the 40% estimate but still find the underdog price sufficiently attractive.

Key factors

• • Market implies a 71% chance for home which seems rich given lack of confirming data
• • Conservative estimated true probability for away of 40% yields required odds 2.50
• • Current away price 2.75 gives positive EV despite uncertainty