Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 1.32 is ~75.8%
• • Our conservative estimate (74.0%) yields negative EV at the current price

Pros

• + Conservative probability accounts for bookmaker margin and uncertainty
• + Clear threshold (min required odds 1.351) to look for future value

Cons

• - No match-level data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to refine the model
• - Small difference between our estimate and market means outcomes are sensitive to new information

Details

With no external data available we adopt a conservative prior. The market price of 1.32 implies a win probability of ~75.8% for the home side. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 74.0% (0.74) — slightly below the market-implied figure to account for bookmaker margin and uncertainty. At 0.74 the fair decimal price is 1.351, which is longer than the current 1.32, so the offered favorite price is too short and carries negative expected value. The away price (3.15) implies ~31.7% but our conservative view does not push that probability high enough to create positive EV at 3.15. Given limited information and the tight margin between our estimate and the market, we do not find value on either side and recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data available — conservative priors applied
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.32) is ~75.8%; our conservative estimate is 74.0%
• • Small margin between our probability and market price produces negative EV; doubles matches can be higher variance