Highlights

• • Normalized probability for the favourite ~54.0% (fair odds ~1.852)
• • Offered favourite price (1.72) implies negative EV under our conservative model

Pros

• + Market clearly prices A. Kalender/P. Verbin as favourite
• + If additional positive info (injury to opponents, strong recent form) emerges, the value picture could change

Cons

• - Current market price (1.72) is shorter than our conservative fair price (1.852)
• - No match-specific data available to justify raising our win-probability estimate

Details

We assess the market favourite (A. Kalender/P. Verbin at 1.72) conservatively. The raw market-implied probability for the away side is 1/1.72 = 58.1%, but the market contains an overround (~7.6%) when combined with the home price (2.02). Normalizing for the bookmaker margin gives an estimated true win probability for the away side of ~54.0%. At that probability fair decimal odds would be ~1.852, which is longer than the offered 1.72, so the current price does not represent value. There are no additional match details on form, injuries, surface performance or H2H to justify a higher probability; doubles matches carry extra variance, so we adopt a conservative stance and decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied odds: Away 1.72 (58.1%), Home 2.02 (49.5%) creating ~7.6% overround
• • Normalized (no-margin) estimate gives Away ~54.0% true probability
• • No available pre-match data on form, injuries, surface or H2H — we use conservative assumptions
• • Doubles matches have higher variance, increasing model uncertainty