Highlights

• • Market implies 84.8% win chance for the home pair; our conservative estimate is 80%
• • Current odds (1.18) produce negative expected value (-0.056 per unit staked)

Pros

• + Home side is a clear market favorite, suggesting they are likely stronger on paper
• + Low variance outcome probability if the favorite is truly dominant

Cons

• - Current price does not offer value vs our conservative probability estimate
• - Lack of external data (form/injuries/surface/H2H) increases estimation risk

Details

The market price (home 1.18) implies a win probability of 84.75% for S. Kraus/D. Salkova. Given the absence of external form/injury/H2H data and the inherent variance in doubles matches, we take a conservative estimated true probability of 80.0% that the home pair wins. At that estimate the current price is overpriced for the bettor: EV = 0.80 * 1.18 - 1 = -0.056 (negative). To offer value we would need a price of at least 1.25 or greater for the home side, which the market does not provide. Therefore we do not recommend backing either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.18 = 84.75%) vs our conservative true estimate (80%)
• • No external performance, surface, or injury data available — increases uncertainty
• • Doubles matches can produce upsets; margin between implied and estimated probability is small