Highlights

• • Market implies ~90.1% for the home side; our estimate is 88.0%.
• • Negative EV at current odds: approximately -2.32% per unit staked.

Pros

• + Clear market favourite indicates perceived strength.
• + Low chance of upset based on short price alone.

Cons

• - Quoted price (1.11) does not offer positive expected value versus our conservative probability.
• - Insufficient match-specific data (surface, injuries, recent form, H2H) increases uncertainty.

Details

We estimate the home pair's chance below the market-implied probability. The market price (home 1.11) implies ~90.1% win probability; given no external data, uncertainty around form, surface, H2H and injuries, and typical doubles variance, we conservatively estimate the true home win probability at 88.0%. At the quoted 1.11 this produces a negative expected value (0.88 * 1.11 - 1 = -0.0232), so there is no value to back the favorite. With limited information available, avoiding the market favorite at this price is the prudent choice.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability (~90.1%) is higher than our conservative estimate (88.0%).
• • No external data on surface, injuries, recent form or H2H -> increased uncertainty.
• • Doubles matches can have higher variance; large favourite at short price needs very high confidence to be +EV.