S. Banthia/R. Ramanathan vs N. Lammons/J. Rojer
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home pair at 2.75 based on a conservative 42% win estimate, giving a positive EV of ~15.5%; the bet is attractive only because the market appears to over-favor the away team.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 36.4% vs our 42% estimate
- • Minimum fair odds for home are ~2.381; current 2.75 exceeds that
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current price
- + Conservative probability estimate still yields value
Cons
- - Decision based on limited data and assumptions
- - Doubles outcomes can be high variance and influenced by matchup specifics
Details
The market strongly favors Lammons/Rojer at 1.41 (implied ~71%), which looks steep given the lack of confirming information and the inherent volatility of doubles. The implied probability for S. Banthia/R. Ramanathan at 2.75 is ~36.4%; we conservatively estimate their true win probability at 42% after accounting for normalization of market vig, the higher variance in doubles, and the possibility that bookmakers inflate favorites in low-information matches. At a 42% win probability the home side offers positive expected value: EV = 0.42 * 2.75 - 1 = +0.155 (15.5% ROI). Therefore the home side represents value at the current price.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors the away side creating potential mispricing
- • Limited pre-match information increases outcome variance in doubles
- • Bookmakers often underprice underdogs in low-profile matches