S. Cakarevic/I. Primorac Pavicic vs A. Oana/D. Simionescu

Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 1.56 = 64.1%; our estimate = 60.0%
• • Required decimal odds for value (given our estimate) = 1.667; current 1.56 is too short

Pros

• + Market favors the home side, indicating perceived strength
• + Short favorite price reduces variance if one were confident in the pick

Cons

• - No independent data (form, injuries, H2H, surface advantage) to justify a >64% true win estimate
• - Current odds offer negative expected value under our conservative model

Details

We use a conservative, information-sparse approach because no external scouting, H2H, form, surface or injury data were returned. The market prices show the home pair at 1.56 (implied probability 64.1%). Given the uncertainty, we estimate the home team's true win probability at 60.0% (0.60), which is lower than the market-implied 64.1%. At that estimate the expected return on a 1-unit stake at the current home price is negative (EV = 0.60 * 1.56 - 1 = -0.064), so the price does not represent value. To justify a bet on the favorite we would need a higher market price (or a higher conviction of true probability); with our conservative model there is no positive expected value on either side at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external data available—high uncertainty; we apply a conservative baseline probability
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.56) is ~64.1%, which exceeds our 60% estimate
• • Current price would need to be >=1.667 to break even given our probability estimate