Highlights

• • Home implied chance at 3.10 is ~32.3%, we estimate 30%
• • Away is priced as a ~75% favorite (1.33); we estimate ~70%

Pros

• + Clear market pricing allows straightforward EV comparison
• + Conservative probability assumptions avoid overbetting on uncertain info

Cons

• - No external data to challenge the market or justify a larger divergence in probabilities
• - Bookmaker margin (~7.5%) makes finding small edges harder

Details

We conservatively estimate the underdog (home) has a ~30% chance to win and the favorite (away) ~70%, based on the market split and lack of additional information. Current decimals imply probabilities of ~32.3% (home at 3.10) and ~75.2% (away at 1.33) — the book has ~7.5% vig. Using our conservative true probabilities, neither side offers positive expected value: home EV = 0.30*3.10 - 1 = -0.07 (negative) and away EV = 0.70*1.33 - 1 = -0.069 (negative). To recommend a bet we'd need the home price to be ≥ 3.333 or the away price to be ≥ 1.429 given our estimates. With no external form, injury, or surface data to justify moving our probabilities materially, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors away (1.33) with significant implied vig
• • No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface advantage) available to justify beating the market
• • Underdog would require ≥3.333 to reach break-even given our conservative 30% estimate