S. Heisnam/D. Pratap Singh vs J. Graca/D. Morais
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the favourite is priced slightly shorter than our conservative true probability and the underdog is not sufficiently priced to justify a wager.
Highlights
- • Away priced 1.26; break-even probability = 79.37%
- • Our conservative estimate for away = 78% → small negative EV (-0.0172)
Pros
- + Market clearly favors the away side, reflecting a likely stronger pairing
- + If fresh data later supports >79.4% for the away side, a value bet could emerge
Cons
- - Insufficient pre-match information to justify trusting the market margin
- - Current prices do not offer positive expected value on either side vs our conservative probabilities
Details
We have no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market prices make the away pair heavy favourites at 1.26 (implied ~79.4%) and the home pair longshots at 3.6 (implied ~27.8%). Conservatively we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 78% (0.78) and the home pair at 22% (0.22). At our estimate the fair decimal for the away side is ~1.282; the market price of 1.26 is slightly shorter than fair, producing a small negative EV (EV = 0.78*1.26 - 1 = -0.0172). The home side would need odds > 4.545 to offer value against our 22% probability, which is well above the available 3.6. Given the lack of corroborating data and the small negative edge on the favourite, we decline to recommend a bet — there is no positive expected value at the current prices.
Key factors
- • No independent form/injury/H2H data available — we use conservative priors
- • Market implies ~79.4% for away; our conservative estimate is 78%, slightly lower
- • Home would need much longer odds (>4.545) to represent value versus our 22% estimate